vestreaВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. ПлехановаVestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics2413-28292587-9251Plekhanov Russian University of Economics10.21686/2413-2829-2024-2-182-201vestrea-1921Research ArticleТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА УПРАВЛЕНИЯTHEORY AND PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENTДинамика сбережений населения России и зарубежных стран: оценка и прогнозDynamics of Population Savings in Russia and Foreign Countries: Estimation and Forecasthttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-8036-2396ЯрцеваН. М.YartsevaN. M.

Надежда Михайловна Ярцева, кандидат экономических наук, доцент, профессор, заведующая кафедрой финансов и валютно-кредитных отношений 

119285, Москва, шоссе Воробьевское, д. 6А

Nadezhda M. Yartseva, PhD, Assistant Professor, Professor, Нead of the Department for Finance and Monetary Relations 

6А Highway Vorobevskoe, 119285, Moscow

nyartseva@vavt.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2404-9410СедоваН. В.SedovaN. V.

Надежда Васильевна Седова, доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующая кафедрой экономики промышленности 

109992, Москва, Стремянный пер., д. 36

Nadezhda V. Sedova, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Нead of the Department for Industrial Economics 

36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 109992

nadseva@mail.ruВсероссийская академия внешней торговли Министерства экономического развития Российской ФедерацииРоссияRussian Academy of Foreign Trade under the Russian Ministry of Economic DevelopmentRussian FederationРоссийский экономический университет имени Г. В. ПлехановаРоссияPlekhanov Russian University of EconomicsRussian Federation20242803202402182201Copyright © Ярцева Н.М., Седова Н.В., 20242024Ярцева Н.М., Седова Н.В.Yartseva N.M., Sedova N.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/1921

В условиях геополитической нестабильности в Российской Федерации остро стоит вопрос о необходимости повышения уровня жизни населения, а следовательно, прогнозирования динамики сбережений населения для принятия обоснованных стратегических решений на федеральном уровне. С целью более детального анализа и прогнозирования общего объема сбережений населения России авторами сформирована система факторов, которые оказывают влияние на объект прогнозирования. На основе факторного анализа разработан сценарный прогноз динамики сбережений населения Российской Федерации и динамики потребительских расходов до 2025 г., включающий базовый, консервативный и целевой варианты прогноза. Данное исследование подтверждает тезис о взаимосвязи нестабильной экономической ситуации и возникновения преград к формированию сбережений населения, а также позволяет выявить ряд текущих и перспективных проблем, вызванных экономической неопределенностью. Авторами предложены мероприятия по устранению негативных тенденций в динамике сбережений населения России.

In conditions of geo-political instability in the Russian Federation the necessity to raise standard of living of the population became evident, thus it is needed to forecast dynamics of population savings, which is important for strategic decision-making on the federal level. In order to analyze and forecast the total volume of savings of the Russian population the authors worked out a system of factors that influence the object of forecasting. On the basis of factor analysis they elaborated scenario forecast of dynamics of savings of the population in the country and dynamics of consumer spending up to 2025, including basic, conservative and target variants of the forecast. The present research confirms the thesis of interaction between unstable economic situation and arising of barriers for savings, at the same time it demonstrates a number of current and future problems caused by economic uncertainty. The authors proposed steps aimed at elimination of negative trends in dynamics of population savings in Russia.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.