vestreaВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. ПлехановаVestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics2413-28292587-9251Plekhanov Russian University of Economics10.21686/2413-2829-2024-3-38-53vestrea-1969Research ArticleМАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ, СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЕ И ИНСТРУМЕНТАЛЬНЫЕ МЕТОДЫMATHEMATIC, STATISTICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODSПрогнозирование макроэкономических показателей на основе текстовой информации из области стратегического управления в РоссииForecasting Macro-Economic Indicators Based on Text Information from Strategic Management Field in RussiaЗаграновскаяА. В.ZagranovskaiaA. V.

Анна Васильевна Заграновская, кандидат экономических наук, доцент,доцент кафедры

кафедра прикладной математики и экономико-математических методов

191023; ул. Садовая, д. 21; Санкт-Петербург

Anna V. Zagranovskaia,  PhD, Assistant Professor, Assistant Professor of the Department

Department for Applied Mathematics and Economic and Mathematical Methods

191023; 21 Sadovaya Str.; Saint Petersburg

zagranet@rambler.ruСанкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университетРоссияSaint Petersburg State Economic UniversityRussian Federation202422052024033853Copyright © Заграновская А.В., 20242024Заграновская А.В.Zagranovskaia A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/1969

   Современные условия хозяйствования отличаются экспоненциальным ростом доступной в электронном виде информации и большим интересом к ее использованию для получения конкурентных преимуществ. Статья посвящена исследованию влияния публикаций в средствах массовой информации на важнейшие социально-экономические показатели на основе построенной по разнородным данным причинно-следственной диаграммы, которая отражает основные концепты системы стратегического управления в России. Методологической базой исследования послужили теории когнитивного, тематического моделирования, а также регрессионного анализа. В работе применяются методы тематического моделирования, машинного обучения, статистического анализа данных. Автором предложена процедура автоматизированного построения причинно-следственной диаграммы на основе качественных и количественных данных. Выявленная система причинных связей между ключевыми концептами системы позволила построить прогнозные модели высокой точности. Результаты исследования показали, что темы, освещаемые в СМИ, влияют на социально-экономические показатели. Правда, неожиданные события делают неадекватными математические модели, опирающиеся на инерционность систем. В теоретическом плане предложена процедура автоматизированного построения причинно-следственной диаграммы на основе разнородных данных, которая позволяет устранить проблему субъективности экспертных оценок при построении когнитивной карты. В прикладном плане с опорой на причинно-следственную диаграмму построены модели прогнозирования важнейших социально-экономических показателей на основе публикаций в СМИ, что дает возможность принимать обоснованные управленческие решения и в случае необходимости влиять на ситуацию.

   The current situation in economic activity is notable for exponential increase in accessible e-information and serious interest in its use in order to get competitive advantages. The article studies influence of information published in mass media on the essential social and economic indicators, which show key concepts of the system of strategic management in Russia. Methodological basis of the research was formed by theories of cognitive, topical modeling and regressive analysis. In the investigation the author used methods of topical modeling, machine education and statistical analysis of data. The author put forward the procedure of automated plotting of the cause-and-effect diagram based on qualitative and quantitative data. The system of causal links between key concepts of the system gave a chance to build forecast models of high accuracy. Findings of the research showed that topics being highlighted in mass media can influence social and economic indicators. Unfortunately, accidental events can make mathematic models, relying on system inertia, inadequate. In theoretical aspect the article proposes the procedure of automated building of the cause-and-effect diagram based on heterogeneous data, which can eliminate the problem of subjectivity of expert estimations in plotting cognitive maps. In applied aspect models of forecasting the most important social and economic indicators based on mass media publications were worked out that lean against cause-and-effect diagram and can support well-grounded managerial decisions and in case of necessity can affect the situation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.