vestreaВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. ПлехановаVestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics2413-28292587-9251Plekhanov Russian University of Economics10.21686/2413-2829-2026-3-235-248vestrea-2771Research ArticleТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА УПРАВЛЕНИЯTHEORY AND PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENTЭколого-экономическая оценка городских инвестиций в развитие электрического транспортаEcologic and Economic Appraisal of City Investment in Development of Electric Transporthttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-5739-3594ТиньковН. Г.TinkovN. G.

Никита Геннадьевич Тиньков, инженер 1-й категории кафедры экономики устойчивого развития и природопользования экономического факультета

119991, Москва, Ленинские горы, д. 1, стр. 46

Nikita G. Tinkov, 1st Category Engineer of the Department of Sustainable Development and Environmental Management, Faculty of Economics

building 46, 1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991

tinkov.ng@mail.ruМосковский государственный университет имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation20262005202603235248Copyright © Тиньков Н.Г., 20262026Тиньков Н.Г.Tinkov N.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/2771

Статья посвящена эколого-экономической оценке проекта замены 835 дизельных автобусов на электробусы в Москве. Предметом исследования выступает влияние внедрения электрического транспорта на показатели устойчивого развития с учетом сокращения выбросов парниковых газов и улучшения здоровья населения. Цель исследования – сравнение классических финансово-экономических критериев эффективности (NPV, IRR) и расширенных показателей (ENPV, EIRR), включающих монетизацию экологических экстерналий. Методология исследования основана на применении модели дисконтированных денежных потоков с интеграцией социальной стоимости углерода и оценок предотвращенных преждевременных смертей. Для расчета последствий загрязнения воздуха использованы концентрационно-ответные функции (HRAPIE, ВОЗ) и показатель статистической стоимости жизни (VSL), адаптированный к российским условиям. Дополнительно учтены данные COPERT 5 и статистика транспортного сектора Москвы. Результаты показали, что включение экологических экстерналий существенно изменяет оценку общественной отдачи проекта. В базовом финансовом сценарии проект характеризуется показателями NPV на уровне 2,378 млрд рублей и IRR в пределах 1,15%. При включении в модель экологических экстерналий (снижение смертности от загрязнения воздуха, сокращение выбросов парниковых газов) расширенные показатели эффективности существенно возрастают: ENPV составляет 3,820–4,338 млрд рублей, а EIRR достигает 1,76–1,99%. Это подтверждает высокую общественную ценность электрификации городского транспорта. Научная новизна заключается в комплексной адаптации международных методик (HRAPIE, intake fraction, VSL) к отечественным данным. Практическая значимость определяется возможностью применения результатов при выпуске зеленых облигаций, разработке транспортной политики и развитии рынка ESG-инвестиций. Выводы исследования демонстрируют, что интеграция экологических экстерналий формирует более объективную основу для принятия инвестиционных решений в сфере устойчивого транспорта.

The article deals with ecologic and economic appraisal of the project on replacing 835 diesel buses by electro-buses in Moscow. The subject of the research is the impact of introducing electric transport on figures of sustainable development with regard to cutting green-house gas emissions and improving population health. The goal of the research is to compare classical finance and economic criteria of efficiency (NPV, IRR) with extended indicators (ENPV, EIRR) that include monetization of ecologic externalities. Methodology of the research is based on the model of discounted cash flows with integration of social value of carbon and estimation of prevented early deaths. To evaluate consequences of air pollution concentration-response functions (HRAPIE, VOZ) were used as well as the indicator of statistic value of life (VSL) adapted to Russian conditions. Apart from that COPER 5 data and statistics of Moscow transport sector were taken into account. Obtained findings showed that introduction of ecologic externalities can seriously change the appraisal of public return of the project. In the basic finance scenario the project is characterized by NPV figures on the level of 2.378B rubles and IRR within the limit of 1.15%. In case ecologic externalities are included in the model (drop in deaths caused by air contamination, cutting green-house gas emissions) extended indicators of efficiency grow considerably. ENPV can make up 3.820–4.338B rubles, while EIRR can reach 2.76–2.99%. It confirms high public value of city transport electrification. Scientific novelty consists in complex adaptation of international methodologies (HRAPIE, intake fraction, VSL) to home data. Practical usefulness is proved by opportunity to use results in issuing green bonds, elaboration of transport policy and development of ESG-investment market. The research conclusions demonstrate that integration of ecologic externalities can form more objective basis for making investment decisions in the field of sustainable transport.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.