vestreaВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. ПлехановаVestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics2413-28292587-9251Plekhanov Russian University of Economics10.21686/2413-2829-2019-2-198-210vestrea-692Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬECONOMIC SECURITYРиски террористических актов и особенности их оценкиRisks of acts of terrorism and specific features of their estimationТихомировН. П.TikhomirovN. P.

Николай Петрович Тихомиров - доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой математических методов в экономике.

117997, Москва, Стремянный пер., д. 36.

Nikolay P. Tikhomirov - Doctor of Economics, Professor, the Head of the Department for Mathematical Methods in Economics.

36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997.

kafedra_mme@mail.ruНовиковА. В.NovikovA. V.

Андрей Вадимович Новиков - заведующий лабораторией«Социально-политического анализа и прогнозирования» кафедры политологии и социологии.

117997, Москва, Стремянный пер., д. 36.

Andrey V. Novikov - Head of the Laboratory «Socio-Political Analysis and Forecasting» of the Department  for Political Science and Sociology.

36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997.

camouflage@yandex.ruРоссийский экономический университет имени Г. В. Плеханова.РоссияPlekhanov Russian University of Economics.Russian Federation20192204201902198210Copyright © Тихомиров Н.П., Новиков А.В., 20192019Тихомиров Н.П., Новиков А.В.Tikhomirov N.P., Novikov A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/692

В статье рассмотрены особенности относительно новых рисков снижения уровня социально-экономической устойчивости государства, обусловленных террористическими актами, и подходы к их оценке и предотвращению. Показаны специфические черты этих рисков, связанные с неограниченностью сферы деятельности и методов террористов, неочевидностью их мотивов и т. п., предопределяющие высокие уровни неопределенности оценок вероятностей, ущербов и других последствий их проявления. Систематизирована структура ущербов, в рамках которой выделены прямые и косвенные потери различных сфер национальной экономики и населения мирового сообщества. Приведены оценки таких потерь, имевших место вследствие террористических атак в ряде стран. Выделены уникальные характеристики рисков террористических угроз, отличающие их от других видов экономических рисков и предопределяющие необходимость разработки специфических по составу используемых мер и стратегий их предотвращения. Обсуждены основные направления деятельности по снижению рисков террористических угроз, предполагающие выявление основных факторов, способствующих их проявлению, оценку условий и тенденций их развития и разработку методов противодействия таким угрозам. Рассмотрены правовые основы противодействия терроризму в Российской Федерации, предполагающие усиление роли государства в борьбе с этим явлением, в частности, путем выделения необходимых финансовых ресурсов на развитие доступной сети информации, повышение защищенности объектов, усиление страховой защиты населения и другие направления антитеррористической деятельности. Обсуждены возможные подходы к оценке вероятностей осуществления террористических актов с использованием моделей бинарного и множественного выбора с учетом индикаторов, отражающих условия их осуществления.

The article studies specific features of relatively new risks of declining the level of social and economic stability of states due to acts of terrorism and approaches to their estimation and prevention. Specificity of these risks are shown, which are connected with unlimited spheres of activity and methods of terrorists, vagueness of their reasoning and so on, which determines the high level of uncertainty in probability estimation, damages and other consequences of their activity. The structure of damages was systemized, within the frames of which direct and indirect damages in different fields of national economy and population of global community were identified. Estimation of such damaged which took place in different countries was provided. Unique characteristics of risks of terroristic attacks were given, which differ from other types of economic risks and predetermine the necessity to develop specific steps and strategies of their prevention. Key lines in the activity aimed at reducing risks of terroristic threats were discussed that stipulate disclosing basic factors promoting their appearance, estimation of conditions and trends in their development and elaboration of methods counteracting such threats. Legal basis of counteracting terrorism in the Russian Federation was considered that imply strengthening the role of state in the struggle against this phenomenon, for example by allocation of necessary finance resources directed to the development of accessible network of information, to the improvement of objects’ safeguarding, insurance protection of the population and other lines in anti-terrorist activity. The author discusses possible approaches to estimation of probability of terroristic attacks by using binary and multiple choice with regard to indicators showing conditions of their conducting.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.