Assessing and Regulating the State of Population Reproduction

Abstract

The article studies alternatives of regulating the state of demographic reproduction as a goal of assessing the necessary changes in annual levels of the age birth and death rates providing the growth in the process indicators that characterize the change from depopulation in Russia to sustainable rise in the country population. It provides indicators of the population reproduction state, i.e. the top and standardized rates of its growth, which show the objective state of the process in each year. Methods of these indicators’ estimation were studied on the basis of age factors of natural movement and analytical expressions connecting these indicators’ values were obtained.

The authors elaborated methods aimed at regulation of the top growth rate based on methodology of the theory of linear operator disturbances and standardized growth rate by using possible variants of standardized population structures. They estimated and compared values of the top and standardized population growth rates in Russia in certain years of the 21st century and found their differences. The key indicators of the natural population movement, i. e. the factor of the birth rate of women at the age of 25–39 were shown as they are mainly subject to regulation and can influence volatility of indicators of the demographic reproduction state. The necessary growth in these factors was evaluated, which ensures the passing of these indicators over the single border that separates states of depopulation and extended population reproduction. The article explains the differences in resolving this problem for indicators shown in the article.