Elaborating the Dynamic Model of Russian Agricultural Market Development in Conditions of Climate Changes
https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2023-3-5-17
Abstract
Climate change is a long-term dynamic process thus conclusions concerning its after-effects for agriculture obtained through statistic tools of modeling combined with extrapolation can be rather inaccurate. In view of this the conceptual outlook and methodology of shaping the basic scenario for the dynamic space model of agricultural markets in Russian Federation regions were elaborated. This model could be developed on the basis of architecture similar to that used in VIAPI that was worked out in 2019 and since then has been used in agricultural market researching. As a result a conclusion was drawn that elaboration of a new model was supported by effective academic research, which provided an opportunity to pass to the stage of technical implementation of the project. The author underlined the necessity to support the project on the part of the government, which is possible in the form of eliminating barriers to adequate data. This model, like VIAPI one will be able to forecast a response of regional agricultural market all over the country to climate changes, to advanced steps for struggling with green house gas emission and to other external effects. But in contrast to it the model can show dynamics of the response and the process of market adjustment to new conditions in their development.
About the Author
N. M. Svetlov
All–Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics named after A. A. Nikonov – branch FSBSI FRC AESDRA VNIIESH
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nikolai M. Svetlov Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher
21-1 Bolshoy Kharitonievsky Lane, Moscow, 107078
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For citations:
Svetlov N.M. Elaborating the Dynamic Model of Russian Agricultural Market Development in Conditions of Climate Changes. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2023;(3):5-17. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2023-3-5-17
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