Forecasting Limits of Feasible Organization Growth by Using Key Predictors of Organizational Transformation
https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2024-3-30-37
Abstract
The article studies methodological approach, advanced by the author, to using key predictors of organizational transformation necessary to forecast limits of feasible organization growth within the frames of the present production structure. The principle distinguishing feature of this methodological approach is the use of indicators defined by the author as key predictors of organizational transformation. This set of indicators was identified by the author through results of earlier statistical research of transformation laws of organization production structure in different sectors of economy. With the help of such indicators it is possible not only to describe the predominant type of organization production structure but also, on the basis of their quantitative values, to identify limits of corresponding level of its development. Methodological approach advanced by the author is based on statistical methods of research and gives an opportunity to forecast limits of feasible organization growth based on the earlier developed method of their production structure. Within the frames of the given methodological approach the method of statistical forecasting limits of feasible organization growth was elaborated. The use of this methodology could allow organization management to forecast in advance the moments of coming organizational transformation, which is connected with changes in production structure type and to make necessary managerial decisions.
About the Author
A. L. BobkovRussian Federation
Aleksandr L. Bobkov, PhD, Assistant Professor, Assistant Professor of the Department
Department for Management Theory and Business Technologies
109992; 36 Stremyanny Lane; Moscow
References
1. Bell E., Breiman A. Metody sotsialnykh issledovaniy. Gruppy, organizatsii i biznes [Methods of Social Research. Groups, Organizations and Business]. Moscow, Humanitarian Center, 2012. (In Russ.).
2. Bobkov A. L. Verifikatsiya modeli evolyutsii proizvodstvennoy struktury metallurgicheskikh predpriyatiy Cheshskoy Respubliki s ispolzovaniem klasternogo analiza [Verifying the Model of Production Structure Evolution of Steel-Making Enterprises in the Check Republic by Using Cluster Analysis]. Vestnik Rossiyskogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta imeni G. V. Plekhanova [Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics], 2022, Vol. 19, No. 3 (123), pp. 43–51. (In Russ.).
3. Bobkov A. L. Issledovanie zakonomernostey organizatsionnogo razvitiya stroitelnykh organizatsiy Rossiyskoy Federatsii s ispolzovaniem klasternogo analiza [Researching Laws of Organizational Development of Construction Organizations in the Russian Federation by Using Cluster Analysis]. Nauchnye issledovaniya i razrabotki. Ekonomika firmy [Academic Research and Developments. Economics of Firms], 2021, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 49–54. (In Russ.).
4. Bobkov A. L. Issledovaniya zakonomernostey organizatsionnogo razvitiya: teoriya i prakticheskoe primenenie : monografiya [Researching Laws of Organizational Development: Theories and Practical Application : monograph]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2022. (In Russ.).
5. Bobkov A. L. Postroenie modeli rosta effektivnosti predpriyatiy na primere metallurgicheskikh predpriyatiy Cheshskoy Respubliki [Elaborating Model of Enterprise Efficiency Growth Illustrated by Steel-Making Enterprises of the Check Republic]. Sbornik materialov II Natsionalnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii «Aktualnye voprosy ekonomiki promyshlennosti: poisk i vybor resheniy» [Collection of materials of the 2<sup>nd</sup> National Conference ‘Acute Issues of Industry Economics: Search and Solutions’], edited by A. V. Bystrov. Moscow, Rusayns, 2023, pp. 26–30. (In Russ.).
6. Bobkov A. L., Denisov I. V., Kuchmaeva O. V. Issledovanie organizatsionnoy struktury predpriyatiy reteyla i obrazovaniya metodami statisticheskogo analiza [Researching Organizational Structure of Retail and Educational Enterprises by Methods of Statistical Analysis]. Statistika i Ekonomika [Statistics and Economics], 2019, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 11–21.
7. Bolman Li G., Dil T. E. Refreyming organizatsiy [Organization Reframing], Vol. 20 (Biblioteka Sbera). Moscow, Alpina Pablisher, 2018. (In Russ.).
8. Winston U. Biznes-modelirovanie i analiz dannykh. Reshenie aktualnykh zadach s pomoshchyu Microsoft Excel [Business-Modeling and Data Analysis. Resolving Acute Problems by Microsoft Excel], 5<sup>th</sup> ed. Saint Petersburg, Piter, 2019. (In Russ.).
9. Daft R., Murfy J., Wilmout H. Organizatsionnaya teoriya i dizayn [Organizational Theory and Design]. Saint Petersburg, Piter, 2013. (In Russ.).
10. Eremenko K. Rabota s dannymi v lyuboy sfere. Kak vyyti na novyy uroven, ispolzuya analitiku [Working with Data in any Sphere. How to Reach a New Level by Using Analysis]. Moscow, Alpina Pablisher, 2021. (In Russ.).
11. Cameron E., Green M. Upravlenie izmeneniyami: modeli, instrumenty i tekhnologii [Managing Changes: Models, Tools and Technologies], translated from English by P. Timofeev. Moscow, The Kind Book, 2006. (In Russ.).
12. Kuznetsov Yu. V., Melyakova E. V. Razvitie podkhodov k proektirovaniyu organizatsionnykh struktur upravleniya [Developing Approaches to Designing Organizational Structures of Management]. Terra Economicus, 2013, Vol. 11, No. 3-2, pp. 40–45. (In Russ.).
13. Upravlenie biznesom v burnye vremena [Managing Business in Stormy Times]. Moscow, Alpina Business Books, 2007. (Harvard Business Review). (In Russ.).
14. Upravlenie v usloviyakh neopredelennosti [Management in Conditions of Uncertainty]. Moscow, Alpina Business Books, 2006. (Harvard Business Review). (In Russ.).
15. Flamgolz E., Randl I. Upravlenie strategicheskim izmeneniyami: ot teorii k praktike [Managing Strategic Changes: from Theory to Practice], translated from English by N. G. Yatsyuk. Moscow, Eksmo, 2012. (In Russ.).
16. Yakimova V. A. Perspektivnyy analiz finansovogo polozheniya predpriyatiy kapitaloemkikh otrasley na osnove modeli dostizhimogo rosta [Promising Analysis of Finance Standing of Enterprises of Capital-Intensive Industries Based on Feasible Growth Model]. Korporativnye finansy [Corporate Finance], 2013, No. 1 (25), pp. 81–95. (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Bobkov A.L. Forecasting Limits of Feasible Organization Growth by Using Key Predictors of Organizational Transformation. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2024;(3):30-37. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2024-3-30-37