System-Dynamic Modeling of the Process of Transforming the Number of Non-Tax Payments

When there is no common approach to classification and regulation of non-tax payments in Russia, system-dynamic modeling can be an effective method of analysis and transformation of this fiscal subsystem. The present article describes the approach, worked out by the authors, to modeling the process of transforming the number of non-tax payments by using Any Logic environment and Java language. The research includes plotting cause-and-effect scheme describing key processes in the system: initiation, acceptance and abolishing of non-tax payments and direct and back links affecting these processes. There are three possible scenarios of transformation: inertial, conservative and aggressive. The inertial scenario maintains status-quo: the number of payments and their sum total fiscal load are stable. The conservative scenario implies gradual transformation of the number of payments, which leads to a drop in para-tax load from 1.37 to 1.25% of GDP. The aggressive scenario demonstrates the highest effectiveness by cutting the number of payments to nearly zero by reducing fiscal load to 0.05% of GDP and decreasing the volume of receipts by 6 trillion rubles for the decade. Special attention was paid to estimation of para-tax load, which is not included in official methodology of calculating tax load and influences seriously business activity and investment climate. The authors underline the necessity to systematize non-tax payments, upgrade legal regulation and improve transparency of fiscal mechanisms. This model in spite of simplification can allow us to identify main links and after-effects of different reforming strategies. The research builds theoretical and practical foundation for decisionmaking in the field of budget-taxation policy oriented to raising sustainability of economy and reducing concealed load on business.

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