Forecast of Average Monthly Prices of Producers on Oil-Bearing Crops and Fat and Oil Produce in Russia in April 2025 – March 2026

Abstract

On markets of oil-bearing crops and fat and oil produce information about future conditions is the most important. It has both academic and practical significance, which can help economic entities in business-planning. However, the number of investigations on this subject in free access is limited. As a rule it comes to analyzing previous and current prices, while forecasts are either neglected or inaccessible for internet-users for free. The goal of the research is to build a forecast of average monthly prices of producers on oil-bearing crops and fat and oil produce on home market in Russia on April 2025 – March 2026. For this purpose the authors used econometric package TIBCO Statistica v13.5.0.17 with modeling on ARIMA base with due record to trend and seasonal fluctuations. The obtained forecast models show a sufficient degree of reliability. The forecast error by results of cross-checking for sunflower seeds makes up 21.9% , rape seeds – 6.4%, soy-bean – 7.1%, sunflower oil and its non-purified fractions – 11.6%, rape oil and its non-purified fractions – 11.4%. In 2025 we expect a small drop in world prices on oil-bearing crops and vegetable oil. In Russia in conditions of considerable volumes of their production and high level of resources a low rise in prices is forecast.