System Analysis on the Basis of Imprecise Cognitive Cards

The current conditions in business can be characterized as uncertain and complicated and it limits possibilities of using quantitative methods for analysis and forecast of the economic situation. The article summarizes theoretical material dealing with cognitive modeling. It is proposed to analyze complicated systems on the basis of tools shown in the article, which could provide an opportunity to get an integral view of the situation at the expense of quantitative-qualitative and space-time description of the situation in conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty. Imprecise causal algebra, which forms the basis of the method, makes it possible to identify direct and indirect links between elements of the system, to analyze the system behavior, to find utmost standing allowing us to forecast the situation development in the long-term period. It is also feasible to calculate the principle characteristics of the system, such as density, complexity, the degree of hierarchy. The author gives a system analysis of the enterprise functioning on the basis of imprecise cognitive card, which models the current conditions of business in today’s Russian economy, including factors of internal and external environment of the organization. The opportunity to include in the model plenty of variables, even with imprecise values, direct and indirect link with different degree of precision, to combine accurate and expert knowledge, simplicity and speed of combining uncoordinated knowledge, build cognitive cards and obtain needed results, as well as possibility of scenario forecasting and planning make imprecise cognitive cards an essential tool of preliminary analysis of complicated systems.

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