Preview

Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Advanced search

Models of diagnosing finance security of industrial enterprises

https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2018-5-158-166

Abstract

The article grounds the necessity to develop a logit-model capable of showing specificity of Russian economy for diagnosing finance security of industrial enterprises in the Russian Federation. As a result of the research the authors designed two specialized models and put forward a classification of finance security for small and medium business. They showed the role of ensuring finance security of industrial enterprises and gave facts, which makes it possible to diagnose the start of finance threats. The article provides the analysis of Russian industrial enterprises dealing with machine and equipment manufacturing. The designed logit-models show finance processes of home industrial enterprises, which can cause finance insolvency. Testing was done on the basis of official open accounting of 173 Russian industrial enterprises. The authors produce evidence of their use for forecasting finance standing of Russian industrial enterprises. The research was done with the help of software IBM SPSS Statistics and it made it possible to give precise and trustworthy tests of the quality of logit-models. This research can be recommended for choosing efficient managerial solutions on ensuring finance security of industrial enterprises among diversified alternative concepts.

About the Authors

I. A. Sergeeva
Penza State University.
Russian Federation

Irina A. Sergeeva, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department for Management and Economic Security.

Penza.



S. Yu. Chunaev
Penza State University.
Russian Federation

Sergey Yu. Chunaev, Post-Graduate Student of the Department for Management and Economic Security.

Penza.



References

1. Burykin A. D., Nasedkin A. L. Finansovyy analiz predpriyatiya – osnova ego ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [Financial Analysis of an Enterprise is the Basis of its Economic Security]. Buhgalterskiy uchet [Accounting], 2000, No. 10. (In Russ.).

2. Volkov S. D., Galuzina S. M. Upravlencheskoe reshenie v organizacionnoy sisteme upravleniya [Management Decision in the Organizational Management System]. Nauchnyy zhurnal NIU ITMO. Seriya «Ekonomika i ekologicheskiy menedzhment» [Scientific Journal of NIU ITMO. Series "Economics and Environmental Management"], 2016, No. 2, pp. 92–98. (In Russ.).

3. Vysockaya T. V. Ocenka veroyatnosti bankrotstva predpriyatiya agropromyshlennogo kompleksa [Estimation of the Probability of Bankruptcy of an Enterprise of the Agro-Industrial Complex]. Politematicheskiy setevoy elektronnyy nauchnyy zhurnal Kubanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta [Polytechnical Network Electronic Scientific Journal of the Kuban State Agrarian University], 2013, No. 89, pp. 1076–1087. (In Russ.).

4. Zhdanov V. Yu., Afanas'eva O. A. Modeli diagnostiki riska bankrotstva predpriyatiy aviacionno-promyshlennogo kompleksa [Models for Diagnosing the Risk of Bankruptcy of Enterprises of the Aviation-Industrial Complex]. Korporativnye finansy [Corporate Finance], 2011, No. 4, pp. 77–89. (In Russ.).

5. Matraeva L. V. Ispol'zovanie logisticheskoy regressii pri vyyavlenii prioritetov regional'noy investicionnoy politiki v otnoshenii inostrannyh investorov v regiony RF [Use of Logistic Regression in Identifying Priorities of the Regional Investment Policy in Relation to Foreign Investors in the Regions of the Russian Federation]. Statistika i ekonomika [Statistics and Economics], 2013, No. 6, pp. 170–174. (In Russ.).

6. Muradov D. A. Logit-regressionnye modeli prognozirovaniya bankrotstva predpriyatiy [Logit-Regression Models of Forecasting Bankruptcy of Enterprises]. Trudy Rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta nefti i gaza im. I. M. Gubkina [Proceedings of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas], 2011, No. 3, pp. 160–172. (In Russ.).

7. Nasledov A. IBM SPSS 20 Statistics i Amos: Professional'nyy statisticheskiy analiz dannyh [Professional Statistical Analysis of Data]. Saint Petersburg, Piter, 2013. (In Russ.).

8. Rygin V. E. Model' ocenki riska bankrotstva predpriyatiy metallurgicheskoy otrasli [The Model for Assessing the Risk of Bankruptcy of Enterprises in the Metallurgical Industry]. Vestnik YuRGTU (NPI) [Bulletin of the South Russian State Technical University (NPI)], 2013, No. 5, pp. 84–91. (In Russ.).

9. Urodovskih V. N., Bahaeva A. A. Ob adekvatnosti modeley ocenki riska bankrotstva otechestvennyh predpriyatiy [On the Adequacy of Models for Assessing the Risk of Bankruptcy of Domestic Enterprises]. Social'no-ekonomicheskie yavleniya i process [SocioEconomic Phenomena and Processes], 2010, No. 6, pp. 178–182. (In Russ.).

10. Field A. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS, 2nd ed. London, Sage Publications Ltd., 2005.

11. Hosmer D. W., Lemeshow S., Sturdivant R. X. Applied Logistic Regression, 3rd ed. Wiley, 2013.


Review

For citations:


Sergeeva I.A., Chunaev S.Yu. Models of diagnosing finance security of industrial enterprises. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2018;(5):158-166. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2018-5-158-166

Views: 895


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2413-2829 (Print)
ISSN 2587-9251 (Online)