Breaking the Budget Rule to Rescue Economy
https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2020-5-16-25
Abstract
A high degree of uncertainty in the future development of global and Russian economy due to the corona-virus epidemic proliferation, the global economic downfall, which followed the introduction of quarantine measures in some countries make the issue of changes in state budget policy in the Russian Federation more and more acute. Despite the seeming finance stability of the budget system of the Russian Federation characterized by the surplus federal budget during two previous years and min deficit budgets of other levels, it still depends on external factors of the economic development. Policy of the Ministry of Finance aimed at adjustment of federal budget fund use to fluctuations of global oil prices within the frames of the budget rule can form considerable reserves, but at the same time it can cause a drop in investment and consumer demand and sl ow down in economy development. This approach to developing and implementing budget policy could ruin the budget essence as an active tool of state regulation of economy, especially in current conditions. Transforming the model of obligatory balance of the federal budget and accumulating sovereign reserves in conditions of growth absence in Russian economy for the large-scale stimulation of the population and business demand require scientifically grounded approach. New economic conditions demonstrate the necessity to provide well-balanced parameters of the federal budget within the frames of the budget rule. The possibility to combine these goals depends on degree of realizing key budget risks and stability of state finance to them. The article carried out modeling of key parameters of the federal budget depending on risk defining factors and effective restrictions by the budget rule provided an opportunity to advance a hypothesis that the basis of the long-term balance of Russian federal budget is formed by a new model of state budget policy leaning on the alternative use of finance tools and acceptable easing of budget rule restrictions.
About the Author
A. Yu. Chalova
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alla Yu. Chalova PhD, Assistant Professor of the Department for Finances and Prices
36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997
References
1. Aleksashenko S., Mironov V., Miroshnichenko D. Rossiyskiy krizis i antikrizisnyy paket: tseli, masshtaby, effektivnost [Russian Crisis and Anti-Crisis Package: Goals, Scale, Efficiency]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Issues of Economics], 2015, No. 2, pp. 23–69. (In Russ.).
2. Vlasov S. A., Deryugina E. B., Vlasova Yu. A. Issledovanie ustoychivosti gosudarstvennykh finansov Rossii v kratkosrochnom i dolgosrochnom periodakh [Researching Stability of State Finance in Russia in Short-Term and Long-Term Periods]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Issues of Economics], 2013, No. 3, pp. 33–49. (In Russ.).
3. Grishin V. I., Grishina O. A., Chalova A. Yu., Voronkova E. K., Dolgova M. V., Kolmakov V. V. Virus ne oboydet federalnyy byudzhet: poteri dokhodov neizbezhny [The Virus Would not Miss Budget: Profit Losses are Inevitable]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Science], 2020, No. 3, pp. 40–59. (In Russ.). Available at: https://inecon.org/images/stories/publicacii/vesnik-ran/2020/VIE_RAS_3_2020.pdf
4. Kireeva E. V. Trendy v sfere gosudarstvennykh finansov: vyzovy, realnost, perspektivy [Trends in the Field of State Finance: Challenges, Reality, Prospects]. Ekonomika i predprinimatelstvo [Economics and Entrepreneurship], 2020, No. 3 (116), pp. 158–163. (In Russ.).
5. Kosov M. E. Negativnye proyavleniya v ekonomicheskoy sisteme kak faktory, vliyayushchie na vozniknovenie byudzhetnykh riskov [Negative Phenomena in the Economic System as Factors Affecting Budget Risk Arising]. Audit i finansovyy analiz [Audit and Finance Analysis], 2017, No. 5-6, pp. 639–644. (In Russ.).
6. Kudrin A. L., Knobel A. Yu. Byudzhetnaya politika kak istochnik ekonomicheskogo rosta [Budget Policy as a Source of Economic Growth]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Issues of Economics], 2017, No. 10, pp. 5–26. (In Russ.).
7. Omshanova E. A. Nalogovye instrumenty deofshorizatsii rossiyskoy ekonomiki [Tax Tools of De-Off-Shoring of Russian Economy]. Innovatsii i investitsii [Innovation and Investment], 2019, No. 9, pp. 206–210. (In Russ.). Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/nalogovye-instrumenty-deofshorizatsii-rossiyskoy-ekonomiki
8. Tendentsii razvitiya rossiyskoy ekonomiki v usloviyakh pandemii koronavirusa i vozmozhnye antikrizisnye mery [Trends in the Development of Russian Economy in Conditions of Corona-Virus Pandemic and Possible Crisis Measures]. (In Russ.). Available at: http://www.inveb.ru/attachments/article/247/%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80~.pdf
9. Chalova A. Yu., Omshanova E. A. Byudzhet stimulirovaniya ekonomicheskogo rosta, ili kak ne vyyti za ramki byudzhetnogo pravila [Budget Stimulation of Economic Growth or How to Stick to Frames of the Budget Rule]. Federalizm [Federalism], 2018, No. 4 (92), pp. 115–133. (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Chalova A.Yu. Breaking the Budget Rule to Rescue Economy. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2020;17(5):16-25. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2020-5-16-25
Views:
824
Email this article 