Appraisal of Investment into Sustainable Power Sources: Russia and Brazil
https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2025-5-101-119
Abstract
Nowadays power systems of countries undergo serious changes caused by passing to sustainable electric power sources. The process of power transfer in the world is rather irregular, which affects social and economic processes all over the world. Investment into power projects shall be planned due to numerous reasons, including economic and finance ones. This article provides an approach to planning investment into electric power stations working on sustainable sources of electric power, such as SES, VES, GES and AES. In spite of the problem importance, not so many works have been published in this field. On the basis of advanced model of analyzing time series estimation of necessary investment was done to reach the set goals in two BRICS countries: Russia and Brazil. The research showed similarities and differences in power systems of two countries and dynamics of electric power generation on sustainable sources. Brazil is one of global leaders by the share of sustainable sources of energy in the power balance and it continues fast development in all types of sustainable power. Russia also shows high dynamics of development in certain types of sustainable power engineering. The approach demonstrated in the article proves its effectiveness and can be used to forecast electric power generation and investment into building necessary capacities for the period of 1-3 years.
About the Authors
E. P. Mochalina
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ekaterina P. Mochalina, PhD, Associate Professor of the Department for Higher Mathematics
36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 109992
G. V. Ivankova
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Galina V. Ivankova, Senior Lecture of the Department for Higher Mathematics
36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 109992
S. A. Smirnov
Saint-Petersburg State University;
Durban University of Technology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey A. Smirnov, PhD, Associate Professor of the Department for Enterprise Economics and Entrepreneurship; Honorary Research Associate of the Department of Operations and Quality Management
7/9 Universitetskaya Embankment, Saint Petersburg, 199034;
41 ML Sultan Road, Durban, South Africa.
Andrea Souza Santos
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Brazil
Brazil
Andrea Souza Santos, D.Sc. COPPE
2030 Horácio Macedo Avenue, Rio de Janeiro, 21941.
References
1. V Germanii otmenili gosprogrammu po otkazu ot atomnoy energetiki [Germany Cancelled State Program on Rejection Nuclear Power Engineering]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://oilcapital.ru/news/2025-05-21/v-germanii-otmenili-gosprogrammu-po-otkazu-otatomnoy-energetiki-5395676 (accessed 19.07.2025).
2. Vetroenergetika po-russki: veter – otdelno, energetika – otdelno [Wind Power Engineering according to Russian Standards: Wind is one Thing and Power Engineering is another]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://novostienergetiki.ru/vetroenergetika-po-russki-veter-%E2%80%93-otdelno-energetika-%E2%80%93-otdelno/ (accessed 19.07.2025).
3. Solnechnaya energetika: stoimost stroitel'stva i effektivnost [Solar Power Engineering: Construction Cost and Effectiveness]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://ecotek.pro/news/energolikbez/solar-energy/?ysclid=mapjszbz64753653680 (accessed 19.07.2025).
4. Aditya T., Jaipuria S., Dadabada P. A Review of Methods for Long Term Electric Load Forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 2024, Vol. 44, pp. 1403–1423.
5. Brazil added 11 GW of new capacity in 2024, 91% of which were solar and wind. Available at: https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/brazil-added-11-gw-new-capacity-2024-91-which-were-solar-and-wind.html (accessed 19.07.2025).
6. Chen Y., Hexeberg A., Rosendahl K., Bolkesjø T. Long‐Term Trends of Nordic Power Market: A Review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 2021, Vol. 10, pp. 1–23.
7. Hosein G., Hosein, P., Bahadoorsingh S., Martinez R., Sharma C. Predicting Renewable Energy Investment Using Machine Learning. Energies, 2020, Vol. 13, p. 4494.
8. Karumanchi H., Santhosh M. Forecasting of Hydropower Generation of India using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model. Journal of Algebraic Statistics, 2022, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 3124–3128.
9. Lindberg K., Seljom P., Madsen H., Fischer D., Korpås M. Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Current and Future Trends. Utilities Policy, 2019, Vol. 58, pp. 102–119.
10. Lopes M. P. C., Nogueira T., Santos A. J. L., Branco D. C., Pouran H. Technical Potential of Floating Photovoltaic Systems on Artificial Water Bodies in Brazil. Renewable Energy, 2022, Vol. 18, pp. 1023–1033.
11. Mystakidis A., Koukaras P., Tsalikidis N., Ioannidis D., Tjortjis C. Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review of Techniques and Technologies. Energies, 2024, Vol. 17, p. 1662.
12. Sarpong S., Agyei A. Forecasting Hydropower Generation in Ghana Using ARIMA Models. International Journal of Statistics and Probability, 2021, Vol. 11, pp. 20–30.
13. Shiwakoti R., Charoenlarpnopparut C., Chapagain K. Time Series Analysis of Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Seasonal ARIMA and an Exponential Smoothing Model. International Conference on Power and Renewable Energy Engineering (PREE), 2023, pp. 131–137.
14. What does solar energy bring to Brazil? Available at: https://www.absolar.org.br/en/home-en/ (accessed 19.07.2025).
15. Zeng S., Liu Y., Liu C., Nan X. A Review of Renewable Energy Investment in the BRICS Countries: History, Models, Problems and Solutions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, Vol. 74, pp. 860–872.
Review
For citations:
Mochalina E.P., Ivankova G.V., Smirnov S.A., Santos A.S. Appraisal of Investment into Sustainable Power Sources: Russia and Brazil. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2025;(6):101-119. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2025-5-101-119
Views:
70
Email this article 