MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2017-2-34-39
Abstract
The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic trends. The authors prove that a possible way to resolve the problem is to model economic agents’ expectations and identify trends of their economic development. On the basis of quantitative estimation of economic agents’ expectations they designed algorithm for diagnosing cyclic fluctuations of economy, which gives an opportunity to identify rising and declining phases of economic cycles with an advance lag of 1-2 years with the effective trajectory of economic development of national economy.
About the Authors
Leonid A. Elshin
Center of Perspective Economic Researches of Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
PhD, Assistant Professor, Head of the Department for Macroresearches and Economy of Growth of the Center of Perspective Economic Researches of Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Assistant Professor of the Department for Economy of University of Management «TISBI»
23 Ostrovsky St., Kazan, 420111, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation
Maxim V. Savushkin
University of Management of «TISBI»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
PhD, Assistant Professor, Vice Rector for Quality, Head of the Department for Economy of University of Management of «TISBI»
13 Mushtari St., Kazan, 420012, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Elshin L.A., Savushkin M.V. MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2017;(2):34-39. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2017-2-34-39
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