Ecologic and Economic Appraisal of City Investment in Development of Electric Transport
https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2026-3-235-248
Abstract
The article deals with ecologic and economic appraisal of the project on replacing 835 diesel buses by electro-buses in Moscow. The subject of the research is the impact of introducing electric transport on figures of sustainable development with regard to cutting green-house gas emissions and improving population health. The goal of the research is to compare classical finance and economic criteria of efficiency (NPV, IRR) with extended indicators (ENPV, EIRR) that include monetization of ecologic externalities. Methodology of the research is based on the model of discounted cash flows with integration of social value of carbon and estimation of prevented early deaths. To evaluate consequences of air pollution concentration-response functions (HRAPIE, VOZ) were used as well as the indicator of statistic value of life (VSL) adapted to Russian conditions. Apart from that COPER 5 data and statistics of Moscow transport sector were taken into account. Obtained findings showed that introduction of ecologic externalities can seriously change the appraisal of public return of the project. In the basic finance scenario the project is characterized by NPV figures on the level of 2.378B rubles and IRR within the limit of 1.15%. In case ecologic externalities are included in the model (drop in deaths caused by air contamination, cutting green-house gas emissions) extended indicators of efficiency grow considerably. ENPV can make up 3.820–4.338B rubles, while EIRR can reach 2.76–2.99%. It confirms high public value of city transport electrification. Scientific novelty consists in complex adaptation of international methodologies (HRAPIE, intake fraction, VSL) to home data. Practical usefulness is proved by opportunity to use results in issuing green bonds, elaboration of transport policy and development of ESG-investment market. The research conclusions demonstrate that integration of ecologic externalities can form more objective basis for making investment decisions in the field of sustainable transport.
About the Author
N. G. Tinkov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nikita G. Tinkov, 1st Category Engineer of the Department of Sustainable Development and Environmental Management, Faculty of Economics
building 46, 1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991
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For citations:
Tinkov N.G. Ecologic and Economic Appraisal of City Investment in Development of Electric Transport. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2026;(3):235-248. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2026-3-235-248
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