Methodological Aspects of Forecasting Economic Development in Regions in Conditions of Uncertainty

Today forecasting economic development in regions is a key link of the mechanism of regional economy management. In spite of the fact that tools of economic-mathematic forecasting are being upgraded continuously, the problem of making trustworthy forecasts in conditions of uncertainty is still acute. The goal of the research is to elaborate methodological aspects of forecasting economic development in regions in conditions of uncertainty. The article highlighted key factors in forecasting social and economic development in Russian regions. The authors provided comparative characteristics of current approaches to forecasting economic development in regions in conditions of uncertainty, which reveals principles of decision-making by bodies of regional authority in conditions of uncertainty. Stages of making these decisions were formed and their description was given. Special attention was paid to methodology of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty and possibility of its adjustment to forecast economic development in region. Taking into account the fact that the theory of decision-making in order to formalize conditions of uncertainty with regard to decision-maker’s opinion uses methodologies MCDM (multicriteria decision-making) and DSUD (decision-making under deep uncertainty), whose features were shown in the research, opportunities of their adjustment for forecasting economic development in regions in conditions of uncertainty were described. Advanced methodological aspects of forecasting economic development in regions in conditions of uncertainty help elaborate effective methods and algorithms of decision-making, whose introduction in practice can raise quality of forecasting indicators of regional economy development. In its turn it can foster making effective managerial decisions by bodies of regional authority. 

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