MATHEMATIC, STATISTICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODS
Climate change is a long-term dynamic process thus conclusions concerning its after-effects for agriculture obtained through statistic tools of modeling combined with extrapolation can be rather inaccurate. In view of this the conceptual outlook and methodology of shaping the basic scenario for the dynamic space model of agricultural markets in Russian Federation regions were elaborated. This model could be developed on the basis of architecture similar to that used in VIAPI that was worked out in 2019 and since then has been used in agricultural market researching. As a result a conclusion was drawn that elaboration of a new model was supported by effective academic research, which provided an opportunity to pass to the stage of technical implementation of the project. The author underlined the necessity to support the project on the part of the government, which is possible in the form of eliminating barriers to adequate data. This model, like VIAPI one will be able to forecast a response of regional agricultural market all over the country to climate changes, to advanced steps for struggling with green house gas emission and to other external effects. But in contrast to it the model can show dynamics of the response and the process of market adjustment to new conditions in their development.
The article studies approaches to substantiate lines in social and economic policy of Russia aimed at passing to the stage of extended population reproduction, which became possible after revealing econometric methods of dependence of demographic process intensity indicators on living conditions in the country. As such indicators the authors used maximum and standardized rates of population growth depending only on age birth and death factors and net-coefficient of reproduction. Specific features of their content and methods of their estimation were provided, as well as yearly figures of these indicators in Russia in 2000–2020. Options of econometric models were shown that describe regularity of these indicators changeability depending on factors characterizing living conditions in the country. By using factors of indicator flexibility necessary changes in living conditions were roughly estimated, which could provide transition from depopulation to sustainable growth in population in Russia. The authors critically analyzed the results that are characterized by serious discrepancy in indicators assessing necessary positive changes in living conditions needed to overcome the demographic crisis. It was shown that the most trustworthy estimations correspond to the standardized growth rate.
New knowledge is recognized as an important resource of positive dynamics of the territory development. As a result knowledge becomes an element of economic models that try to summarize regularities of economic growth and development of regions, cities and countries. The article provides structured analysis of the well known models to research regional development, which combines factors of knowledge and space. It studies ways of including knowledge and space in models, where the object of observation is territorial social and economic system, enterprise or agent possessing knowledge. Models of balanced growth, econometric ones and models with maximization aim are shown. At the same time space autocorrelation analysis and space regressive models can be used that help assess heterogeneity of innovation development in regions and identify influence zones. As a result methods of modeling general (industry) knowledge for territories with different level, global and local external effects, geographic identity of research of different types, maximization of research through alternative costs, monopoly industrial effects, impact of industrial competition and diversity, as well as knowledge ‘filter’ are revealed. Space characteristics of knowledge proliferation can be modeled through functions of activity and resistance, flexibility parameter, function of distance fading, parameter of transaction costs for knowledge transfer.
The article deals with substantiation of efficiency of interdisciplinary approach in developing competences in the field of using mathematic methods in economics for graduates of economics universities. The necessity to form such competences arose due to increasing requirements on the part of employers to mathematic training of economists. The research is really acute as shaping skills for using mathematic methods in students’ economic investigations at economics universities is impeded. Key reasons for that include insufficient motivation in a certain part of future economists to study higher mathematics, a limited number of class hours for mathematic subjects, difficult interaction of mathematic and specialty chairs. The author analyzes available in literature examples of using interdisciplinary approach for working-out courses dealing with application of mathematic methods and results of delivering the subject ‘Mathematic Methods of Finance Analysis’ elaborated at the chair of higher mathematics in the Russian Plekhanov University of Economics. To elaborate the subject interdisciplinary approach was used. Interdisciplinary economic and mathematic courses based on fundamental sections of higher mathematics foster understanding of the role of higher mathematics by future economists, help shape necessary competences for graduates of economics universities in the field of using mathematic methods in economics, which can improve the quality of economists’ training and their competitiveness.
INNOVATION MANAGEMENT
The article provides results of the experiment in the form of an interview with chat-bot based on artificial intellect (AI) ChatGPT dealt with governing the transportation and logistics holding company. The research showed that AI systems had reached such a level of development, which allows us to use them for solving problems of organizational and strategic governance of the company. The system can give adequate answers to questions connected with various aspects of management, formulate suggestions and identify promising trends for strategic development. Chat-bot that deals with preliminary preparation of the material can be used to resolve analytical problems in order to save time of profile specialists. However, use of such systems can cause risks of sensitive information leakage and making incorrect decisions on the basis of wrong data. In spite of high assessment of such system potential, transportation and logistics companies and other organizations should use relevant technology with care.
REGIONAL ECONOMY
Each stage of the development requires correction of economic course, especially in conditions of global challenges. The period of orientation to external sources of growth at the expense of selling raw materials and power products abroad is over, thus it is necessary to pass over to endogenous development of Russian economy, especially agriculture. Information provided in the article gives evidence to a big share of exported resources in respect to the volume of their production or extraction. Four fifth of mineral fertilizers produced in the country is sold abroad, though home agriculture uses them in insufficient volume. Additional amounts of mineral fertilizers in Russian fields could increase the volume of food that is in demand on global markets. Power resources that cannot be used due to anti-Russian sanctions could be directed to internal needs, which could give an opportunity to convert them into goods with high added value. Putting resources that were not used by western countries in home economy can create extra capacities and extend taxation base, which could compensate for losses on foreign market. In agriculture priority shall be given to the development of local economy mobilizing local labour and material resources, which apart from production effect could provide opportunities for resolving a number of social and economic problems caused by big agricultural producers. The author came to the conclusion about the promising nature of endogenous development, which can ensure the quality of Russian economy growth and its agrarian sector.
The changing situation in the world and fast arising threats and challenges stimulated investigations concerning the impact of different barriers on regional development and findings ways of their overcoming. The goal of the research is to identify and substantiate the dependence between indicators of social and economic development of the region and restrictive measures of international character. The empiric basis of the research is formed by expert method using binary logics of estimation and content-analysis; correlative-regressive analysis. In order to find a certain interconnection 184 indicators of Sevastopol strategic plan were studied. Results of the research showed that 51% (on average) of indicators of the strategic plan of social and economic development in Sevastopol depended directly or indirectly on restrictive measures of international character. The authors used statistic sampling of economic development indicators, which are affected most of all by restrictive measures of international character and plotted correlative-regressive models of the gross regional product dependence on the amount of investment in fixed capital; the amount of investment into fixed capital dependence on foreign trade turnover in the region. These models can be used to forecast strategic development of the region. The practical importance of the research is connected with elaborated forecast models as independent analytical tool for regional governance. The advanced approach to estimating social and economic development of the region in conditions of restrictive barriers of international character worked out on the basis of identifying factors influencing gross regional product and investment into fixed capital in the region can help accurately and truly estimate the impact of measures and tools of regional policy on social and economic development of the region in conditions of sanctions and restrictions.
FINANCE
Cash flows are a convenient source of operational information for analyzing the state of the economy. Obtaining this information will ensure the use of operational regulatory tools to achieve the goals of economic security. The purpose of the study is to conceptualize the problem of creating a domestic classifier of cash flows, which acts as an early identification tool for crisis phenomena in the economy. The authors systematize foreign and domestic approaches to the creation of a classifier of cash flows, the organization of monitoring of the volatility of cash flows. The article reveals the differences between the classifier of payments and cash flows, identifies the key limitations associated with the creation of the classifier. There are three levels of cash flows: individual, group and territorial. These levels can form the basis of the created cash flow classifier. The authority to monitor cash flows should be assigned to the Bank of Russia. Considering the prospects of expanding the capabilities of the Bank of Russia's payment system and the introduction of the digital ruble, the Bank of Russia can collect and promptly analyze information about cash flows. The object of monitoring is the level of volatility of cash flows. Subsequently, the information received can be automatically transmitted to the relevant authority for the use of state regulation tools.
The article analyzes work of the Bank of Russia and puts forward suggestions for new monetary-credit tools, which can ensure progressive development of country economy in conditions of rejecting one-polar system of international relations. Policy of the Bank of Russia is characterized by consistent use of such tools as ‘sterilization’ of money stock, its ‘pressing’ by key interest rate, gold selling. These methods implementing basic principles of market fundamentalism in the monetary variant hinder the development of national economy. To replace them the authors propose to fix in the legislative way a direct responsibility of the Ministry of Finance of Russia and the Bank of Russia for attaining planned macro-economic figures and to introduce their coordinated work in line with the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia that can be headed by Deputy Prime Minister. According to the authors it is advisable to pass to policy of real post-capitalism and interest-free economy, as elimination of credit repayment can become a serious incentive factor of intensification for entrepreneurial and working activity. In the monetary sphere it is recommended to introduce the digital ruble in two forms that could delimit deals: with industrial and consumer goods. As a result Russia could show an example of successful solution of the problem acute for many countries, i.e. development of a new system of monetary and credit relations, which on the basis of proposed tools can guarantee a real growth in production and people well-being.
The author considers tax policy as one of the most important mechanisms of sustainable development of economy. The article analyzes positive and adverse aspects of introducing new federal laws to support business and measures of its backing adopted in 2022. The key current challenges for tax policy were identified, such as growth in tax burden on the real sector of economy; a considerable share of shadow sector; insufficient level of tax administrating development. On this foundation the author put forward suggestions aiming at tax policy upgrading with due regard to overseas experience, which can rise efficiency of enterprises of small and medium business, cut their excessive tax burden, which could increase their profit and the number of enterprises and in the future have a positive influence on sustainable development of Russian economy.
ECONOMICS OF LABOUR
Illegal labour activity is a multi-sided notion, which shows a whole set of processes dealing with arising, realizing and terminating labour relations between worker and employer, in case infringement of law and formal standards takes place. The goal of the research is to work out trends of lowering risks of illegal labour activity in national and sectoral aspects. The authors formed the methodological basis of the research by materials of investigations in the field of economic security and shadow economy, illegal and informal labour activity and risk management. Statistic and analytical materials of international and national statistic services were used as information foundation of the research. In the research the authors used general-scientific and specific economic methods that allow us to study the problem of illegal labour activity in a complex way, for instance, content-analysis, statistic analysis, revealing cause and effect links. Serious attention was paid to finding reasons and consequences of illegal labour activity and key branches of economy, where processes of illegal labour activity are the most obvious. Practical importance of the research is connected with using tools of risk management in state regulation and identifying measures of counteraction and barring cases of illegal labour activity. According to the authors state regulation in the field of illegal labour activity shall be based on monitoring and analysis of social and economic situation, forecasting trends and specification of plans of social and economic development.
The article analyzes the cost of school set for the first-former as an indicator of expenses spent on yearly child fittingup for school. The calculation of the first-former set was done on the basis of the standard list of goods fixed by Rosstat for each region with regard to annual price dynamics in 2006–2021. The results show that the cost of the set rises every year both in absolute figures and in relation to the regional living wage. At the same time estimation of the average per capita income of households without children, households with one, two, three and more children based on selective monitoring of population income in 2014–2021 showed that the cost of school set for the firstformer exceeded the average per capita income of families with children and the gap increases with the number of children. The obtained results prove the necessity to develop measures of social support of families with school children. In the article the authors study the effective regional measures of supporting such families and put forward approaches to their upgrading. The research can be useful for working-out measures aimed at cutting the poverty rate in entities of the country, as families with children are the most vulnerable in the context of risk of getting into poverty.
THEORY AND PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENT
Projects act as an important tool of corporate governance as it is possible to attain with their help strategic organizational goals. Significance of efficient project management is recognized by companies all over the world, as not always it is possible to comply with the basic plan of the project. As a rule, terms and budgets are exceeded, the quality of the product is changed. Today companies often face problems of project management in the field of information technologies (IT). Usually the detailed project content is not known at its start due to complicated technological task. Thus we can say that IT projects are subject to high uncertainty that is why they need specific approaches to be effectively managed. In the article the authors study different methodologies of project management, however not all of them can be used for projects of software development and introduction. Flexible methodologies of project management (Agile) are the most suitable for IT projects. Agile-methods take into account all specific features of project management for developing and introducing information technologies. Efficiency of flexible methodologies of IT-project management was proved by a number of qualitative and quantitative investigations.
The article describes the research dealing with trends formed in Russian industry in conditions of sanctions. Based on results of analyzing business activity of industrial enterprises factors were ranged, which limit production growth in organizations of manufacturing and mining sectors. The author revealed the impact of economic situation uncertainty on behavior of economic entities, development strategy, finance resources distribution, the level of investment activity of enterprises, as well as on the structure of finance sources of investment. In the structure of factors limiting production growth special attention was paid on home demand insufficiency, which was thoroughly studied. The author also investigated dynamics of consumer demand based on comparative assessment of retail turnover parameters, the rate of real incomes and structure of using them by the population in times of sanction introduction in 2014, 2015 and 2022. The article provides figures of the level of import-dependence in certain industries and results of pursuing policy of import-substitution. Typical problems of sectoral manufacture were identified by using the example of light industry. Distribution of entrepreneurs by fields of economic activity was analyzed and comparative analysis of sectoral structure of manufacturing enterprises in Russia and overseas countries was carried out. The author came to the conclusion that in conditions of economic sanctions in order to eliminate disproportion in industry Russia shall intensify state regulating functions and develop the system of macro-economic planning based on inter-sectoral balance.
The research studies certain aspects of using intellectual property and its commercialization. In the last 30 years the development of advanced production technologies changed the system of economic relations between entities drastically. The key role in this transformation is attributed to digital technologies. Therefore, the major part of finance operations and getting information take part in virtual space and it impacts all exchange technologies. The replacement of paper money by digital analogues on bank accounts decreased the interaction of money cost and material production. These transformations influenced processes of innovation and know-how commercialization. The legal side of commercialization problem requires more accurate definitions of intellectual property as a new type of possible right holder emerged, i. e. artificial intellect and intellect property itself becomes more and more intangible. Apart from that, issues and problems of providing security for man and society through intellectual property commercialization acquire new quality and demonstrate new threats. For instance, the development of block-chain technology created a challenge to the present day banking system and sovereignty of states and the development of cyber-sports exerts uncontrolled impact on gamers’ consciousness, whose number reaches thousands of millions. Therefore, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of understanding all internal processes and after-effects of intellectual property commercialization, which makes this academic problem continuously topical. The author proposes to focus on mankind security and protection against global threats of new types of intellectual property commercialization.
The problem of food waste treatment has attracted serious attention lately, as such wastes are regarded as a source of valuable biological matters. We should consider them as a resource, which can be used in the future to produce forage, fertilizers, etc. The authors carried out investigations aimed at revealing problems of food waste treatment. Analysis of the effective legal acts allows us to draw a conclusion, that the major part of these acts cannot create conditions directed to preferable and priority utilization of food wastes, therefore recommendations aimed at elimination of gaps in the field of waste regulation are advanced. First of all it is necessary to specify available definitions and introduce new ones in the field of food waste management, to ban destruction and burial of food waste, build infrastructure for separate garbage collection with obligatory use of bins for food waste. At the same time it is needed to adopt a law about food-sharing, to insert amendments into the Tax Code of the Russian Federation and to remove from the list of taxation entities food stuffs with expiring BBD in case of their free transfer. These changes could release trade enterprises from taxes and thus motivate companies not to reduce foods to the condition of food waste. Serious attention should be paid to technologies of their utilization and assessment of efficiency of technological solutions on their use in the field of food stuffs management in the Russian Federation in order to decrease amounts of food with expiring BBD and food waste.
MARKETING, LOGISTICS, SERVICE SECTOR
ISSN 2587-9251 (Online)