ECONOMIC THEORY
The goal of the research is to analyze general methodological approaches used in economic theory and tools of artificial intellect, in particular machine learning. According to the authors there is a certain similarity between debates about realistic assumptions of economic models and the acute discussion concerning interpretability in using machine learning in real conditions. The widely used concept of the model as a ‘black box’ casts doubt on validity of using such models both in machine learning and in economic theory. Apart from that, the issue of public trust to applying algorithms and elaboration of evidence-based policy become hardly attainable without relevant interpretation of model functioning, in spite of hypothetic accuracy of forecasts made with their help. In machine learning it is impossible to rely only on ‘black box’ functioning and neglect the role of man in decision-making. In the same way in economic science the essence of phenomena described by models is often sacrificed to laconism and harmony of mathematic and econometric tool set. Analysis of academic publications on methodological problems in economics as a science allows us to draw a conclusion that in spite of (or due to) the empiric turn in economic theory Milton Friedman instrumental approach is still prevailing, at least in its latent form.
The article analyzes characteristics of homo economicus model and space, where it functions. Principles underlying this quasi-natural scientific model are explained in view of physicalism. Arguments are also provided that allow us to make a conclusion about changing requirements to economic agent in institutional economy. Therefore, from the natural scientific position a hypothesis is advanced that new characteristics of agent can be taxonomically included in economic theory to illustrate the actor’s development. Apart from that a conclusion is drawn about the necessity of additional notions concerning space, where economic agent can be defined. The authors provide arguments in favor of the fact that it is impossible to define utterly the agent of economy and space of its functioning by using metaphors only of natural science. A hypothesis was put forward that models of space and agent shall be supplemented by social properties. With regard to these supplements definitions of such notions as formal and informal institutes, organizations are advanced. And finally a conclusion was made about the limited use of physicalism in economics.
Investment in programs aiming at healthy life and diet popularization has social and economic importance and significant in view of medicine. Balanced diet can cut the risk of many chronic illnesses, such obesity, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. At the same time it can result in lower costs of their treatment. Apart from that, healthy food can help raise productivity and reduce the number of sick-leave days of people, which can be considered as an economic benefit for society. Methodological base of the research is formed by studying the correlation between balanced diet of the population and load on public health system of the country. The analysis provided in the article shows that improper diet increases costs of public health system, as more reserves are necessary to treat illnesses. It affects budgets of the public health system in the country and can deteriorate accessibility of medical help for a lot of people.
MATHEMATIC, STATISTICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODS
The article studies different interpretations of the notion ‘risk’, which can help understand its nature and importance in the context of innovation. Special attention is paid to risks arising at different stages of innovation life cycle, such as idea, development, introduction and support. Reasons for these risks arising are investigated, which can be both internal, i. e. connected with the organization and project management and external, i. e. dealing with market situation and regulatory environment. The author studied methods of risk appraisal, including description of their step-by-step application, which can make the process more transparent and accessible for practical use. The obtained results were structured in the form of a table, where methods of risk appraisal are compared with stages of innovation commercialization and key drawbacks of each group of methods are identified. It makes the article valuable for experts on risk management, researches in the field of innovation and decision-makers wishing to manage risk efficiently at each stage of the innovation process as effective risk management is a key element in successful implementation of innovation projects and can minimize uncertainties connected with this dynamic field of activity.
INNOVATION MANAGEMENT
The article studies specific features of assessing the development project efficiency by using technologies of information modeling (TIM) in view of principle stakeholders. It showed what kind of impact TIM exercises on each of concerned parties and on their relations with the developer, what advantages and drawbacks depend on the degree of information model integration in company business-processes. By results of the analysis and on the basis of the classic system of project appraisal a new multifactor assessment of the development project efficiency was elaborated and put forward, which demonstrates interest of stakeholders in participation in the project using TIM. This appraisal uses the matrix that shows cash flows of each stakeholder in the project and allows them to find in advance the way of interaction with concerned parties of the project and to choose the most appropriate companies for further partnership. On the basis of the matrix it is possible to forecast expectations of the project on the part of all stakeholders at different stages of its implementation. It could help the developer work out the optimum strategy of interaction at a certain moment of time. The author came to a practical conclusion about efficiency of using and opportunity of introduction of such appraisal system in construction.
In economic theory issues dealing with researching and modeling product, technology and organization life cycle have been studied rather well. The goal of this investigation is to describe mechanisms of identifying economic effect of innovation product introduction and its impact on sustainable development of the system that consists of organization-producer and organization-customer. To do this, regulatory documents in this field were summarized and systematized and on the basis of the data the model aimed at identifying economic effect of innovation product introduction was elaborated with due regard to the life cycle cost. To provide visual proof the author shows a blockscheme of finding economic effect of innovation product use and demonstrates correlations on the base of which we can come to the conclusion about expediency of using the product and of sustainable development of the system being studied. As knowledge of the life cycle can be used in order to raise efficiency of work both by organizationcustomer and organization-producer, proposals were put forward concerning interaction between the two entities.
REGIONAL ECONOMY
The article deals with the problem of ethnic immigrant enclave in today’s Russia. Possibility of stable and closed communities rise is stipulated not only by mass inflow of migrants of different cultures and their concentration in certain regions but also by underdeveloped state policy in the field of migration and inter-ethnic relations. In this way risks raised by enclaves are underestimated. Insufficient attention is paid to researching features of their economic activity, mainly in the shadow sector. Among economic, political, legal and social reasons that envisage possibility of enclave formation the absence of socio-cultural adaptation and integration of foreign migrants is of utmost importance. Therefore, goals of this work in the field of integration are vague, objectives are unclear, expected results are hazy and results are negative. The article studies assessment of this phenomenon given in documents of strategic planning. Different approaches to understanding the enclave and its characteristics were analyzed; conditions of enclave forming in view of current migration situation and specific features of economic, political and socio-cultural development of our society were investigated and the problem of the enclave in connection with risks and threats caused by its existence were studied. Current signs of the enclave were specified and supplementary indicators were identified as they can be formed in the Russian situation; reasons for its rise and conditions providing its existence were found. On the basis of studying the approaches to researching this phenomenon and diagnostics of ethnic community as an enclave propositions were elaborated for the complex interdisciplinary investigation, whose results could be necessary for the development of state migration policy and struggle against ethnic migrant enclave formation. Apart from that, suggestions for correcting conditions causing formation and development of ethnic migrant enclaves were put forward.
The goal of the article is to find key trends in upgrading statistic estimation of non-observed economy in the Republic of Uzbekistan by using international experience, digital technologies, analytical and statistic methods.
The principle elements for preparing this publication were official statistic data of the Statistic Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, international regulations and methodology on statistic estimation of non-observed economy. In the research the authors used methods of generalizing results of questionnaire and expert surveys, sample methods of examination, resource method, method of using the data of labour market and some specific methods of data processing based on digital technologies and statistic information systems. The present theoretical provisions were analyzed, methodology of statistic departments of different countries on statistic estimation of non-observed economy was studied and on the basis of this experience statistic research and calculations were carried out in Uzbekistan in order to upgrade methods and practice of statistic estimation of non-observed economy. Statistic estimation of non-observed economy conducted for the 1st time in Uzbekistan showed that today there is no uniform methodology but serious steps have been taken in this direction: methods are upgraded, new criteria are being worked out, which could foster stock-taking and complex measures aimed at wellbalanced development of industries and fields of economy in the country.
The article analyzes the condition of human capital in the agrarian sector in the Republic of Belarus in view of its continuous development and sustainable growth. To reach this goal acmeological approach was used, the idea of which implies researching permanent development of personality and accumulating collective human capital representing the result of its continuous development. Methodology of acmeological research is based on successive study of statistic data characterizing dynamics of human capital life cycle in the agrarian field in view of interconnection between demographic and education components. This approach provides an opportunity to assess its conditions in complex in the light of continuous development and accumulation. The research shows the decline in intellectual component of human capital in the agrarian sector of the country, which testifies to the discrete nature of its reproduction. The obtained results demonstrate key reasons hindering sustainable development and accumulation of human capital in the agrarian sector of the Republic of Belarus, which points to the direction of further research.
The goal of the article is to study interconnection between bio-economy shaping, development of human capital and population health in regions of Russia. Certain indicators of population health were analyzed in federal areas and regions of the Russian Federation in the 21st century. The research showed a trend to reduction in death-rate of employable people (death number per 100.000 people). At the same time it was found that death-rate in the NorthCaucasian federal area was considerably lower in comparison with other areas and in Russia in general (by Mann – Whitney non-parametric criterion). Dynamics of population sick-rate in the Russian Federation was illustrated by key classes of illnesses in 2000–2022. Findings of the research underline that socially important illnesses and TB among them are important for population health, which is considered as one of the most significant components of human capital that plays a principle role in the development of regional economy. Analysis of statistic data shows reliable cut in TB numbers from 2010 to 2022 in all federal areas. The authors show cyclic interdependence of bioeconomy functioning and development of human capital by provision of population health as one of possible ways. The research put forward a cyclic model of interconnection between the condition of human capital, characteristics of public health system operation and prospects of bio-economy development, which gives an opportunity to assess the potential of regional development of bio-economy.
The article studies issues of providing the population with accessible drinking water of high quality. The author puts forward a new integral index to assess water-provision of people, which takes into account different factors, including accessibility of water resources, their quality, the level of water-supplying infrastructure and efficiency of water resource management. Integral index was elaborated with due regard to existing methods of water resource estimation, but it was extended and now it includes additional parameters that are specific for conditions in the Russian Federation. For each Russian region a proposed index was calculated, which demonstrates regions with highest and lowest provision with water. The obtained results showed serious regional differences in the level of water provision, which proves the necessity of targeted state policy and investment in water infrastructure, including such alternative methods as bottled water.
The article studies extraction and use of rare-earth metals as a factor of green economy development. It shows possible negative impact during development of rare metal deposits on ecologic and economic system at different stages of extraction, transportation, including the Arctic zone and ore processing. Experience of Russia and China was analyzed in economic appraisal of costs and benefits during implementation of projects dealing with natural resource development with due regard to their life cycle. Methodological approach to integral economic assessment of rare-earth metals was advanced, including economic appraisal of involved natural resources and ecologic costs of production, which could fix prices on such resources with regard to ecologic factors, stimulate application of technologies on complex use of natural raw materials, which includes processing of secondary raw materials and work out the mechanism of regulating natural resource use at all stages of project life cycle. In order to support projects aimed at developing rare metal deposits it is proposed to use such tools as granting credits, tax privileges and subsidies and using a part of funds of carbon tax on greenhouse gases.
Finances
Economy growth in the country is accompanied by rising volumes of its monetization. The more economy is monetized, the lower impact of inflation as a destabilizing factor of the system becomes. The article studies the essence of this correlation within the frames of Russian economy. The research consists of 3 sections: the 1st one describes methodology of estimating economy monetization level. On the basis of the analysis problematic aspects in validity of using estimation parameters were identified. For instance, inadequacy of GDP factor as an indicator of economy development was highlighted. At the same time by successive analysis of monetary aggregate used in calculation of economy monetization factor drawbacks of aggregates M3 and M2 were found and the use of weighted average of M2 was grounded. Comparative analysis of estimation results through different methodology depending on monetary aggregate showed serious discrepancy and therefore, the real degree of under-monetization of country economy. The 2nd section of the research studies indicator of the monetary system stability, i. e. inflation rate. The article provides analysis of correlation between inflation rate and other parameters of the finance system (in the context of its monetary and credit segment) – money supply and key interest rate. Results show the change in trajectory of the assumed correlation since 2013, which allows us to draw a conclusion about prevailing impact of non-monetary factors on inflation rate. The 3rd section of the research, focusing on investigation of correlation analysis results deals with correlation between economy monetization level and inflation rate. The calculation section of the research uses a lot of visual material, which improves comprehension of the research findings.
The analytical period of the research makes 27 years.
The article advances an alternative approach to studying correlation between time and risk in investing into securities portfolio. This risk is usually identified with risks of short-term trading on stock market. However, in case securities portfolio is kept for rather a long period of time, then portfolio risk changes in quality, as it becomes relatively independent from time on investment. The authors showed that fluctuation of share price stops being a principle specific feature of investing into it, while the 1st place is taken by size and regularity of net profit generated by such securities portfolio.
The article analyzed credit risk at all banks of the Russian Federation, except non-bank credit organizations and drew a conclusion about maintaining finance stability of big business representatives and moderate level of debt liabilities. It describes possible negative impact of economic factors on solvency of borrowers that could affect the risk of credit portfolio in the future. Special attention is paid to consequences of oil price fluctuations and changes in the ruble rate, which can cause structural deficit of liquidity and ruble crash. Steps taken by the government and the Bank of Russia were discussed that are aimed at struggle with foreign currency risk, including balancing of transition to national currencies. And finally an adaptive model was put forward that could provide more precise and reliable estimation of credit risk. Certain steps aimed at minimizing liquidity and foreign currency risks were advanced.
ECONOMICS OF LABOUR
The article deals with the acute problem of all times, i.e. employment of artistic university graduates. We mean employment in their specialty, obtained profession and gained skills and knowledge. The problem of graduates employment implies fear of employers to take inexperienced specialists and reluctance of education institutions to adapt curriculums to employers’ requirements and adjust education system to the current labour market. The Orlov State University of Culture provides an example of top management and staff work aimed at this problem solving that included serious and hard activity. The University fosters graduates’ adaptation on labour market, carries out necessary steps to promote the system ‘student – university – education institution – employer (customer)’ and develops partnership relations in order to shape common interests and understanding of the current situation.
THEORY AND PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENT
The article analyzes factors of labour satisfaction of university lecturers during modernization of higher education. The goal of the research is to reveal current approaches to estimating labour satisfaction of lecturers and assess importance of different factors in the general system of lecturers’ attitude to their work. Identification and prioritization of factors of labour satisfaction were based on methods of comparative, typological analysis and the Eisenhower matrix. The empiric base of the research was formed by data obtained during monitoring of education sphere economy, which was done by the Higher School of Economics. During the research characteristics of work satisfaction of university lecturers were shown, which were based on the comparison of the most important expectations from work in the university and realized opportunities provided by the work. The system of factors stipulating work satisfaction of university lecturers includes a wide range of characteristics of professional activities that show the most problematic points of the whole system of higher education. A considerable misbalance between expectations and reality is connected with such aspects as stability of wage and employment, professional growth and career, possibility to plan work. The revealed prioritization of factors in labour satisfaction has partly forced nature. Though it is impossible to compensate in full for the absence of satisfaction by payment for work, the process of softening the negative effect of low pay is now being realized at the expense of social importance, possibilities of professional development and self-realization of lecturer at work. The proposed segmentation of lecturers by the level of work satisfaction can be used in the system of in-university management in development of differentiated HR policy in university.
The article studied market of alcohol beverage in Russia, it showed the level of consumption and poisoning by alcohol, identified the most ‘alcohol drinking’ regions and the structure of consumption, researched the level of illegal production and presence of ethyl alcohol, alcohol and alcohol-containing products in circulation. The level of alcohol beverage production in Russia was analyzed by types and features and structure of alcohol beverage import to our country was analyzed by types and countries. Specificity of regulating market of alcohol beverage import to Russia was investigated and key trends of customs control were demonstrated as a way to prevent counterfeit alcohol product crossing the customs boarder of the Eurasian Economic Union. The author paid special attention to regulation of alcohol product import by using excise stamps, methods of their obtaining and usage.
Maintaining competitiveness of present day enterprises is a complicated task that includes regular upgrading of their business-processes. It should be underlined that upgrading of enterprise business-processes starts with searching for efficient ways of identifying lines and methods of upgrading and finishes by appraisal of these measures effectiveness. The current conditions of economic management stipulated intensification of science and practical investigations aimed at elaborating mechanism of upgrading enterprise business-processes, including enterprises dealing with repair of machines and equipment. Apart from that, a need to adapt existing mechanisms of upgrading to branch specificities arose. Therefore, topicality of research dealing with upgrading business-processes of enterprises of concrete industries stepped up. The goal of the research is to develop and adapt mechanism of upgrading business-processes at enterprises of repairing machines and equipment. As a result of the research the authors came to the conclusion that the advanced mechanism can help identify problems that could cause serious mistakes, dissatisfaction of customers and losses.
On the basis of all the changes that took place in housing construction of the Russian Federation during the previous years, we can point out volatility of some industry indicators while general dynamics of its grows remains.
The development of housing construction industry in Russia is essential for economy within the frames of the federal project ‘Building Comfortable Urban Environment’. To provide timely and full analysis of their economic activities developers during the last decade more and more often use managerial accounting made up on the basis of the requirement of the International Standards of Finance Accounting (ISFA). The mentioned managerial accounting gives developer an opportunity to get necessary information within a short period of time in general for the group of companies, which is essential to diagnose key activity by developer top-management, especially in times of changes in related processes. ISFA provisions are renewed every year and upgraded. These changes require analysis of methodological aspects and estimation of their impact or its absence on methodology of shaping managerial accounting of developers, which explains topicality of the research. The research includes 2 stages. The 1st section confirms the hypothesis of the impact of methodological aspects of ISFA provisions on methodology of preparing managerial accounting of organizations-developers. To verify the hypothesis comparison of different information in a number of lines is carried out: the degree of the topic study in academic literature, experts’ practical observation of specificities of adaptation and integration of ISFA provisions in the Russian Federation after their arising till the present moment. As the result the hypothesis was confirmed about the impact of ISFA provisions on methodology of shaping managerial accounting. The 2nd section of the research gives a list of methodological aspects of ISFA provisions, classified by survey respondents by different signs, including both new ones that are being introduced right now in methodology of shaping managerial accounting of developers and establishes ones. At the same time a list of factors influencing the process of ISFA provisions impacting on methodology of shaping managerial accounting was put forward as well as duration of their impact, cyclic nature of the process of introduction, adaptation and approval of methodological aspects of ISFA provisions as established ones. The key findings of the research can help identify impact of ISFA provisions on managerial accounting of developers and identify a list of methodological aspects of ISFA provisions with classification by different lines, including necessary for its timely renewal and upgrading.
MARKETING, LOGISTICS, SERVICE SECTOR
Studying customer behavior has always been one of the most popular trends of marketing research. Scientists were eager to get answers to the questions: how customer makes a decision about a purchase, what drives and motivates him/her and they always wanted to learn how to influence his/her behavior and even to be able to forecast it. The rising interest in studying customer behavior helped develop methods and methodology of marketing research. In the middle of the 20th century methods of neuroscience were already used in the field of marketing research, technologies of neuromarketing were developed and publications of research results dealing with this sphere appeared. Today’s neuromarketing research is one of fast developing trends. Debates of this topic are held in academic quarters and in business-community. Neuromarketing research abroad began its development as a separate trend in about 1924, in Russia interest in this sphere was noticed since 2009. At this time first publications on this topic turned up, but they had only a sporadic nature. Since 2015 a rise in this subject became obvious, advanced universities of the country opened 1st neurolabs and started to deal with this problem. The goal of the investigation is to study history of neuromarketing research development on Russian market and the most prominent works, authors and companies functioning in the field. The article analyzes the following issues: when and how interest in neuromarketing research appeared in Russia and what served as preconditions to their emergence and development; what technologies of neuromarketing research are known today to science and business and which of them are the most applicable and why; who works today on Russian market of neuromarketing research; what specialization is shown by companies and what achievements they reached; what problems and restrictions are identified, which could hinder the development of neuromarketing research in the future.
The article analyzes and finds priority tasks of state policy in the field of tourism, it also identifies key vectors of industry development and studies the most promising for our country trends, where focus is made on inclusive tourism. On the basis of academic sources the author gives his own definition of this trend and puts forward a classification of inclusive tours. Statistic data provided in the article shows the importance of inclusive tourism development in Russia. By researching specific features of this trend the author identifies a number of problems that hinder revealing of inclusive tourism potential. To resolve these problems the author proposes to use interactive technologies in inclusive tours and pays attention to adaptation of the environment to specific needs of inclusive tourists. Analysis of quest market showed disproportion in its regional development and found factors preventing growth, whose leveling could provide competitiveness of inclusive quest-tourism. Meeting needs of inclusive tourists in rest can be promoted not only by quests but by different events. On this basis the research puts forward the author’s definition of inclusive event tour, explains its specificity, studies different approaches to its creation and advances classification of such tours. And finally, the research demonstrates ways of resolving problems of inclusive event tourism and proves the importance of this trend development.
Today the development of cross-cultural links that stimulate tolerance in society creates conditions for fast growth of culturally-based goods both on the territory of the Russian Federation and in the global scale. Global practice shows that interest in such products grows constantly and there is a need to study their customers. Culturally-based goods mean products, whose consumption is connected with specificity of different displays of culture. Halal products are a good example of culturally-based goods. Interest in such products fosters necessity to study and analyze customer preferences and values influencing the choice of these products. The article provides a detail analysis of digital tools and sale channels, which are suitable for this category of goods and can be used by producers and sellers of culturally-based goods. The author carried out the content-analysis on this topic.
In this article the authors study the problem of supply management of company in the sphere of fast-moving consumer goods in the Internet at the final stage of delivery (‘Last mile’). Empiric analysis of data of online-sale market of fast-moving consumer goods in 2022-2023 showed seasonal peaks of demand and impact of external factors, such as festive periods and weather conditions. It was demonstrated that demand fluctuations can make the company encounter a difficult situation that could cause a loss of a certain part of demand, deterioration of the company reputation in comparison with market competitors, a rise in costs and missed sales in product turnover. Specific features of this activity were grounded that prevent direct use of available means in the field of logistics, management, on-line marketing, etc. The article provides a review of existing approaches to the problem and analyzes a range of reasons causing fluctuations in demand for services of fast-moving consumer goods. Classification of today’s tools of management (algorithmic, infrastructural and relational) was put forward, which can affect the current demand, supply organization or customer habits. The article shows benefits, drawbacks and situations of using these tools.
The article describes reasons for transition of small shipments from railway transport to automobile one and studies proposals to return highly-profitable shot lots back to the railway transport. Today we can observe a rise in the volume of shot lots and joint goods that are delivered by automobile transport. The authors analyzed global experience of transporting shot lots in mid-ton containers. Analysis of market of joint goods transporters showed that serious impact for choosing forwarder is exercised by speed of delivery. Study of existing technologies of goods transportation by speedy cargo trains was carried out, which showed the necessity to choose for shot lots transportation such technology, which could allow railway transport to compete with automobile one not only at long distances but at short legs as well. The authors proposed to use new intermodal transport cargo units: 5- and 10- foot mid-ton module and 10-and 20-foot pick-up body to transport shot lots. Issues of tariffing goods transportation in new intermodal transport units were analyzed and the use of through tariff rate was grounded.
ISSN 2587-9251 (Online)